AIRHELP forecast for 2019: the number of cancellations and delay of flights around the world can reach up to 33,000 per day

The shortage of pilots around the world and the fact that airports are still not ready to cope with the existing busy schedule of flights, can lead to the fact that in 2019 flights will be delayed and cancelled even more often than last year.

The year of 2018 turned out to be catastrophic for the airline industry and tourism: for the first time more than 10 million air passengers in the world suffered from delays and cancellations of flights, for which the compensation stipulated by European Regulation No. 261 is due. Experts working with AirHelp, the world’s leading company to pay compensation for cancelled and delayed flights, believe that chaos will continue in 2019, and predict that more than 2 billion air passengers will face problems during flights.

“The uncertain situation with the exit of the U.K. from the European Union, the threat of regular strikes, lack of pilots and air traffic controllers and overloaded schedule at most of the largest airports in Europe – travelers should get ready for the fact that in 2019 flights will not be delayed. According to our forecasts, over 11 million air passengers worldwide will suffer from delays and cancellations of flights, for which they will rely compensation provided for in European Regulation No. 261. Therefore, we urge all travelers to learn their rights and defend them by demanding compensation under the law,” said Henrik Zillmer, CEO, AirHelp.

Last year, over 93 million air passengers flew out of Russian airports. In 2019, according to AirHelp, this figure will increase to more than 96 million passengers.

The increase in passenger traffic can lead to an even more significant increase in the number of broken flights, since neither the airlines nor the airports, apparently, have taken sufficient measures to be able to cope with a higher load.

To improve the quality of service for travelers, measures will need to be taken by many airports. To avoid airspace congestion, air terminals can add new and expand existing runways, as well as better monitor compliance with the flight schedule. Smaller airports can also add new terminals, which would be used exclusively for serving international flights, in order to speed up the passage of customs and passport control. Airlines, in turn, can focus on staffing: hiring more pilots to overcome their shortage, which the whole industry suffers from, and to improve the working conditions of the flight attendants to avoid new strikes. According to Boeing, in the next 20 years, global civil aviation will require another 637,000 pilots.

“It is obvious that airlines need to make changes to adapt to the growing demand for flights. The number of air passengers will only continue to grow, so it’s unfortunate that more and more travelers will have to deal with these interruptions in air traffic. It’s time to do something with these non-stop delays and cancellations of flights. Until no action is taken, I think it is safe to say that long delays and cancellations of flights will remain important “Because this problem is still not resolved, air passengers should become familiar with their rights and if an unpleasant incident happens during the flight, it’s still necessary to ensure that their rights are respected. and to be treated properly. ”

Forecast in numbers for 2019

According to AirHelp, in 2019, from those or other problems with flights (ranging from 15-minute delays and ending with more than 3-hour delays and cancellations, for which, according to EU law, financial compensation is already paid), Russia will suffer almost 9.8 million passengers. More than 34,500 people are expected to suffer from the problems for which the compensation stipulated in the EU Regulation No.261 is affected. In total, more than 75,000 flights will be disrupted, that is, more than 200 flights per day.

The most stressful period for Russian airports, according to AirHelp experts who analyzed statistics for the last few years, will be the first half of August. The most popular destinations for Russian air travelers in 2019 are projected to be Moscow and St. Petersburg.

Cancellations and delays of flights: the rights of air passengers

In case of delay or cancellation of the flight and in case of denial of transportation, the passenger may, under certain circumstances, rely on financial compensation of up to EUR 600 per person. In order for a passenger to claim compensation, either the departure airport must be located in the EU, or the carrier must be based in the EU and operate a flight with a point of arrival in the EU. In addition, the flight delay should occur due to the fault of the airline. The right to financial compensation can be exercised within three years from the day the flight was delayed.

If the flight was disrupted as a result of exceptional circumstances – adverse meteorological conditions or the need for emergency medical care – the airline is relieved of the obligation to pay compensation to passengers.

With the help of the AirHelp protected application, the injured passengers can still find out at the airport whether they are entitled to compensation for the flight that was just lost. The application will check whether your case meets the criteria for payment, and in a few seconds register the application. The free AirHelp app can be downloaded from the Google Play Store and the Apple App Store.

About forecasting methodology

When making forecasts for 2019, AirHelp specialists relied on historical data and various factors in the development of the airline industry.

Currently, the company receives data from a number of commercial suppliers, since the sources of these intermediaries are different and are not always devoid of inaccuracies. What are these sources:

  • Data directly transmitted by the airlines themselves to airports for display on information boards.
  • AZN-B Transponders (ADS-B) are transmitters that send signals from an airplane to ground points.
  • Airport radar systems – the so-called ASDE data, radar surface surveillance systems in the airport area and access roads.
  • Aircraft traffic reports in IATA format, transmitted from aircraft through airline / airport communication networks.
  • Messages from the Aviation Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS), transmitted to airports and other tourism industry partners via SITA and ARINC networks.
  • Air traffic control systems, such as Euro Control and the Federal Aviation Administration / US Department of Transportation.

Important: the numbers given in the forecast of the number of failed flights for 2019 were obtained as a result of calculations where only departure data was taken as a basis (in previous years the company used a methodology that used both departure and arrival data).

Most often, problems with air travel occur either during departure or during a flight. Therefore, AirHelp experts concluded that in most cases it would be incorrect to attribute data on a particular delay to statistics related to the country and airport of arrival. To reflect this approach, the company decided to change the methodology. And although the result is not such large numbers, AirHelp believes that this method represents the statistics of flights as correctly as possible. It also means that the AirHelp data reflect as accurately as possible the punctuality indicators for a particular country (as well as a particular airport or carrier).

Methodologies often contradict each other: for example, when some kind of crash occurs in a flight schedule, AirHelp classifies it as a delay only if the departure was delayed by at least 15 minutes, while others talk about a delay when only 10 minutes have passed. Therefore, of course, the results will often differ in the case when a particular indicator is measured by different sources, since the methodologies used often differ.

AirHelp is the world’s leading reimbursement company for failed flights, acquainting passengers with their rights and helping them to seek compensation for delayed or canceled flights, or for denial of transportation. Since its founding in 2013, AirHelp has helped more than 7 million air travelers to file claims for compensation from airlines. AirHelp offers its services in 16 languages ​​and in 30 countries and it has offices around the world, employing more than 550 people.

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